Shortstop: A Tale of Ambiguity

Shortstop is not supposed to be an offense-first position. Historically, it has been a place for range, hands, arm strength, instincts, and defensive reliability. The shortstop controls the infield geometry. He touches double plays, cutoff decisions, relay throws, and the ordinary little moments that keep an inning from becoming something worse.

That makes offensive dominance at shortstop unusually interesting.

A great-hitting first baseman or right fielder may be doing what the position expects. A great-hitting shortstop is doing something different. He is shifting from a defensive to an offensive stance.

This study asks a narrow question: Who was the most dominant offensive shortstop relative to other shortstops of his own time?

Not the greatest all-around shortstop. Not the best defensive shortstop. Not the best postseason shortstop.

The best offensive shortstop.

Methodology

Using the Lahman Database, I identified shortstop seasons through Appearances.csv. A player-season qualified if the player had:

At least 50 games at shortstop

At least 300 plate appearances

For each qualified shortstop season, I calculated six offensive measures:

OBP

SLG

HR per PA

BB per PA

Runs per PA

RBI per PA

Each category was converted into a z-score within that season’s shortstop peer group. The season score was the sum of those six z-scores.

Season Score =

OBP z + SLG z + HR/PA z + BB/PA z + R/PA z + RBI/PA z

Partial seasons were weighted by playing time, with full credit beginning at 600 plate appearances.

The idea is simple. A shortstop in 1908 is compared to other shortstops in 1908. A shortstop in 2002 is compared to other shortstops in 2002. A shortstop in 2025 is compared to other shortstops in 2025.

The model is measuring distance from positional normalcy.

Figure 1: Career Offensive Dominance

The career ranking begins with Honus Wagner.

Wagner finishes first with a career peer-adjusted offensive score of 140.4. Cal Ripken is second at 114.6, and Alex Rodriguez is third at 104.4. Joe Cronin follows at 94.8, then Alan Trammell, Vern Stephens, Ernie Banks, Derek Jeter, Troy Tulowitzki, and Barry Larkin.

This is a strong result. Wagner does not merely survive the era adjustment. He benefits from the right kind of comparison. He was not simply a great hitter in old raw numbers. He was far above what shortstops around him were doing offensively.

The top three also clarify the larger shape of the study. Wagner owns the long historical career argument. Ripken grades extremely well because of sustained shortstop offense across a long run. Rodriguez has fewer qualifying shortstop seasons, but his scoring rate is enormous.

The first major conclusion is: Honus Wagner has the strongest career offensive profile among shortstops in this model.

Figure 2: Best Seven-Season Peaks

The peak ranking changes the order.

Alex Rodriguez finishes first with a seven-season peak score of 96.3. Wagner is second at 91.4. Ernie Banks is third at 77.3, followed by Cal Ripken, Joe Cronin, Troy Tulowitzki, Vern Stephens, Hanley Ramirez, Alan Trammell, and Robin Yount.

This is the A-Rod argument.

His career as a shortstop was not as long as Wagner’s, Ripken’s, Jeter’s, or Larkin’s. But while he was a shortstop, his offensive dominance was extraordinary. From 1996 through 2003, Rodriguez produced a level of shortstop offense that had almost no modern precedent.

The model captures that clearly. He does not win the career score, but he wins the peak score.

That gives us the central tension of the post:

Career offensive shortstop: Honus Wagner

Peak offensive shortstop: Alex Rodriguez

Both statements are as interesting as they are true.

Figure 3: Career Value Versus Peak Dominance

The career-versus-peak scatterplot visually illustrates the debate.

Wagner is far to the right, with a high peak and the strongest career score. Rodriguez sits higher on the peak axis, but with a shorter career total. Ripken occupies a different kind of space: strong peak, very strong career, but not the extreme top in either dimension. Joe Cronin, Ernie Banks, Vern Stephens, Troy Tulowitzki, Alan Trammell, Hanley Ramirez, Barry Larkin, and Derek Jeter fill out the high-value region.

This figure is useful because it prevents a simplistic answer.

If we only care about peak, Rodriguez wins. If we only care about career accumulation while qualifying as a shortstop, Wagner wins. If we combine the two, Wagner still comes out first, but Rodriguez moves very close.

Ripken’s result is also important. He is not usually framed as the greatest offensive shortstop ever, but in this model, his sustained value is outstanding. He was not merely durable. He was offensively valuable for a long time at a demanding position.

Figure 4: Best Individual Offensive Seasons

Alex Rodriguez leads the best individual seasons.

His 2002 season scores 16.9, the highest shortstop season in the study. He also appears with 2001, 2000, 2003, and 1996. That cluster tells the story. Rodriguez’s shortstop peak was not a single outlier. It was a sustained run of elite offensive separation.

There are also some fascinating names near the top. Toby Harrah’s 1975 season ranks second. Rico Petrocelli’s 1969 season ranks third. Wagner appears repeatedly with 1909, 1907, 1905, and 1908. Robin Yount’s 1982 season, Ernie Banks’s 1958 and 1959 seasons, Cal Ripken’s 1985 season, and Arky Vaughan’s 1935 season also appear.

This figure adds texture to the study. The greatest offensive shortstop seasons are not all from the same type of player. There are power seasons, OBP seasons, dead-ball separation seasons, and modern slugging seasons.

But the single-season headline is clear: Alex Rodriguez has the highest offensive season among shortstops in the model.

Figure 5: Wagner Versus the Best Non-Wagner Shortstop

Figure 5 compares Wagner to the best non-Wagner shortstop in each season of his qualified shortstop career.

The early and middle portion of the chart shows why Wagner wins the career argument. He repeatedly stands above the best alternative at the position. From 1903 through 1912, he regularly produced large separations from the shortstop norm.

The later seasons show decline, which is expected. No player remains at peak forever. What matters is the repeated high ground. Wagner occupied that high ground for a long time.

This is where the method is especially useful. Wagner’s career can feel distant because his best seasons happened in a very different baseball world. But the peer-adjusted approach brings the question back to his actual context.

Was Wagner far better offensively than other shortstops of his time?

Yes. Repeatedly.

Figure 6: Balanced Offensive Greatness

The balanced score combines career value and peak value over seven seasons.

Wagner finishes first with a balanced score of 231.8. Rodriguez is second at 200.7. Ripken is third at 188.5. Joe Cronin, Ernie Banks, Vern Stephens, Alan Trammell, Troy Tulowitzki, Hanley Ramirez, and Barry Larkin follow.

This may be the best single-number summary of the study.

It gives Rodriguez proper credit for the greatest peak. It gives Ripken proper credit for sustained value. It gives Banks proper credit for his peak shortstop power. It gives Wagner proper credit for combining peak and career.

The result is not that Wagner was the flashiest offensive shortstop ever. He was not. Rodriguez probably owns that title.

The result is that Wagner produced the best combination of peak and career offensive dominance while playing shortstop.

That is a slightly different claim, and it is the strongest one.

Figure 7: Offensive Component Profile

The component profile shows how the top shortstops built their value.

Wagner’s profile is broad. He dominates through OBP, slugging, runs, and RBI, with a strong HR/PA component relative to his era despite not being a modern home-run hitter. That is an important point. The model is not rewarding him for raw home-run totals. It is rewarding his offensive separation from other shortstops of his own time.

Ripken’s profile is power-and-production driven. His HR/PA and RBI/PA components are especially strong. Rodriguez has a similar power shape, with more peak intensity and fewer qualifying shortstop seasons. Cronin shows a more balanced profile with strong OBP, slugging, walks, and RBI production. Trammell and Jeter are more OBP-and-run oriented, while Banks and Stephens carry more power.

Jeter is especially interesting in this figure. His career score is strong, but his shape is very different from Ripken, Rodriguez, or Banks. Jeter’s offensive case is built around OBP and runs, not home-run dominance or RBI separation.

This figure helps explain why shortstop is such a compelling position. At this position, offensive greatness has several forms.

Figure 8: Dendrogram of Top Offensive Shortstops

The dendrogram clusters the top 15 shortstops by offensive shape rather than by total score.

Several patterns stand out. Rodriguez and Ripken cluster together, which makes sense given their power-production profiles. Banks, Vern Stephens, and Robin Yount form another power-oriented group. Jeter, Larkin, Arky Vaughan, and Bill Dahlen cluster in a more OBP-and-run-value branch. Wagner sits as a distinctive figure, reflecting the unusual breadth of his era-adjusted profile.

This is one of the better dendrograms in the position series because the offensive types are so different. A-Rod and Jeter were both offensive shortstops, but they were not the same kind of offensive shortstop. Banks and Wagner were both elite, but their statistical routes were very different.

The rankings tell us who separated the most. The dendrogram shows how they separated.

The Jeter Question

Derek Jeter ranks eighth by career score in this offense-only model.

That is strong, but not elite at the very top. His career score is 77.8, and his seven-season peak is 48.4. His profile is more about OBP and runs than power separation.

That feels right. Jeter was an excellent offensive shortstop for a very long time, but he was not as dominant relative to his peers as Wagner, Rodriguez, Ripken, Cronin, Banks, or some of the peak-heavy candidates. His greatness includes postseason value, durability, leadership reputation, and historical visibility. This model is narrower.

Offense-only, peer-adjusted Jeter is very good. He is not first-tier.

The A-Rod Question

Alex Rodriguez is the peak answer.

His shortstop career is shorter than Wagner’s and Ripken’s, but his best seasons are enormous. He has the highest seven-season peak and the highest individual shortstop season. In fact, the top single-season chart shows that his 2000-2003 run is one of the most explosive offensive stretches ever at the position.

So if the question is:

Who was the best offensive shortstop at his absolute best?

The answer is probably Rodriguez.

But if the question is:

Who built the greatest offensive shortstop career relative to his peers?

The answer is Wagner.

What the Study Shows

The shortstop study gives us one of the clearest career-versus-peak splits in the series.

Career Score: Honus Wagner

Peak 7 Score: Alex Rodriguez

Balanced Score: Honus Wagner

Best Individual Season: Alex Rodriguez, 2002

Best long-career modern result: Cal Ripken

Most interesting power peak: Ernie Banks

Strongest OBP/run-profile modern shortstop: Derek Jeter

Wagner wins because he combines high peak value with a long period of offensive separation. Rodriguez challenges because his peak is unmatched. Ripken provides the best sustained modern career case. Cronin, Trammell, Stephens, Banks, Tulowitzki, Larkin, and Jeter all deepen the field.

The central finding is not that one player erases the others. It is that the shape of shortstop offense changes depending on whether we value career separation, peak dominance, or the balance of both.

Conclusion

Shortstop offense is special because it has always been partly unexpected. The position begins with defense. Every great offensive shortstop is, in some sense, an exception.

Honus Wagner was the first great exception at scale. He was not merely a good hitter for a shortstop. He was consistently well above the offensive standard for the position. He combined OBP, slugging, run creation, and run production in ways that made him the dominant offensive shortstop of his era.

Alex Rodriguez later pushed the peak higher. His shortstop seasons were explosive, modern, and unprecedented in their power. Cal Ripken built a remarkable long-career case. Jeter added a different kind of offensive value. Banks, Cronin, Trammell, Larkin, Tulowitzki, Vaughan, Yount, and others each occupy important parts of the map.

But by this peer-adjusted offense-only framework, the answer is clear enough.

Honus Wagner was the greatest offensive shortstop by career dominance.

Alex Rodriguez was the greatest offensive shortstop at peak.

As with most things, some subtlety and nuance are required in this instance. The answer depends on the exact question asked.

 

 

The Quad Fs

Approximately 15 years ago, I started the greatest flash fiction writing group the world has ever known. I am certain this will be true 1,000,000 years from now. We were a plucky group of underdogs who met near-weekly to wow the rest of the members (and hopefully the world) with our apparent, yet unrecognized, genius.

We would rotate the member who would give the topic of the assignment. One week, it would be me; the next, some random member who was feeling especially creative and frisky.

You might be wondering what “Quad Fs” means. I know I would. One of our members, a young high school student, was filling out a college application. She wanted to be a writer. She called me to ask me if our writing group has a name; she needed it for the application. Thinking quickly on my feet, I said, “Oh yeah, we have a name. We are the Quad Fs. That stands for the Flash Fiction 500 Friends.” I went on to tell her that we went by that moniker because that was the worst name I could think of. She, of course, got into the college of her choice, and the group slowly dissolved as it, composed predominantly of old men, lost focus. So it goes…

It worked this way: an email would be written with the topic de jour. We all then would get to work. Here is a random example of a typical task.

 

TOPIC: A TEENAGE GIRL GETS A LETTER FROM GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY…500 WORDS…GO!

 

ROB HAREN

 

Rosemary bounced through the door, simultaneously kicking off her Vans and throwing her backpack against the couch. She didn’t notice that her giant chapstick fell out and rolled under the big chair.

“Rosemary, you have a letter on the table.”

“Mom, geez, you know I hate being called Rosemary! Gah…call me Rosie.”

Mom put down the parsley she was chopping up to garnish the evening meal and walked over to the table.

“I noticed it was from a university, but I didn’t pay much attention. Which one is it now?”

Rosie tried to remain calm; this was bad, really bad. “George Mason mom, well, actually it is not officially called George Mason Mom; it is just George Mason. I think I’ll go upstairs and research this school. Do I have a little time before dinner?”

“A little time is all.”

Rosie ran upstairs to the computer room – buttons pressed, switches flipped…and (most importantly) the door locked. Rosie touched the wall in the specified pattern to open the portal. The cylindrical staging area opened, and Rosie took a deep breath before heading in.

“Rosemary, good… you got the letter. I wasn’t sure the teleportation had worked properly.”

“Of course I got the letter. What is going on?”

The holographic figure, a sage-like older man (you would never believe how old!), winced as he told her that all hell was breaking loose. “Rosie, they got out, they escaped. My last experiment went very, very wrong. You and I both know where they are going. I sent communiques to all the others; they are already on their way. You understand exactly what I am saying, right?”

“Uh huh.”

The old man saw the look in her eyes. “Now listen, Rosie, stay right where you are. You are not to leave your house, and even if they show up on your front porch, you are not to engage them. Do you understand me? That is an order. If they come there, you are to get your mom and immediately come to the portal, OK?”  He looked at her and knew it had been a mistake to warn her; he should have just sent someone to get her.

“Rosie, please listen, there isn’t much time…”  Rosie cut him off and skipped out of the portal. She was about to get her battery packs and ammunition when her mom said, “Rosie, there is a group of people on the porch asking for you. What is going on? When did you start hanging out with the Goth kids?”

Rosie quickly grabbed her mom and pushed her into the portal. As soon as she knew her mom was safe, Rosie did one of those teenage-girl waves, then grabbed her weapons. Lock…load…(remain calm)… Now!

If you do a little research, you will find that there is a famous professor at George Mason who is trying to create life in the laboratory. Sister, you don’t know the half of it.

 

 

 

A Commencement Speech

It is a Saturday in late May, and I am working on a blog post, a series of typed letters that few people will read. Why? I feel compelled to think and to write down any thoughts I might have. It is just my nature.

Currently, I am a bit emotional. Why? Well… that is a bit of a long story. Like many people, I am constantly picking up my phone. Today, I came across the commencement speech that Conan O’Brien gave at Harvard University for the graduating class of 2026. I am undone.

Is there an award for the greatest speech given during a graduation cycle? Doubtful. Should there be? Maybe. O’Brien, a Harvard graduate, gave the greatest speech I have ever heard, commencement or otherwise.

As I watched him mesmerize the graduates, I thought back to the two times I was in that crowd. In 1991 and 1993, I was sitting there, listening to the prime minister of Norway, Gro Harlem Brundtland, and then Colin Powell weave their stories. Do I remember what they said? No. I do recall what happened on the dais between Colin Powell and Julia Child. I have a post about it. Fun times.

The other thing I remember about both graduations is that a dude stepped up to the microphone and gave an address in Latin. As a hillbilly from Northeast Ohio, I know about as much Latin as any random person does (very little). I sat there and laughed when those around me did. No harm, no foul.

You might wonder why I don’t link to the video of the speech. Well, I am not going to do that. I recently posted an incredible 52-second video by Hannah Fry, Professor of the Public Understanding of Mathematics at the University of Cambridge. The fallout was substantial.

I have often said that the only place I have ever lived with a population that listened to me was Cambridge, Massachusetts. If there had been the internet when I was there, and if it had been possible to share a 52-second video, everyone who received it would have watched it. The fact that I found it worthy of their attention is all that they would have needed.

As it turns out, hardly any of the people in my circle bothered to click on it. More importantly, one person got mad at me and told me to stop annoying her about it. While I was extremely disappointed, I was not surprised. Welcome to Exile from Eden.

The video, if a person would bother to conjure 52 free seconds to watch it, is the starting point of an important conversation about how discoveries get named and what can be done if something unfortunate happens. Stephen Jay Gould wrote an important essay on the topic, and it became the lead chapter in my favorite nonfiction book, Bully for Brontosaurus. I am looking at my worn copy now.

Brontosaurus is the favorite dinosaur of many people, especially kids going through the important and ubiquitous dinosaur phase. As for me, I am a Triceratops man. I am taking a middling Triceratops in a fight with a T-Rex any day of the week.

Gould’s essay discusses who gets to name a newly discovered dinosaur species. Of course, the person who finds it gets to name it. The problem is that O.C. Marsh, in the 1800s, found a skeleton and named it Apatosaurus. A few years later, he found more bones and called that creature, you guessed it, Brontosaurus.

The story becomes long and complicated, especially after the paleontological community decided that the two were conspecific. The name Brontosaurus took off, and the dinosaur became well known in popular culture. Under the rules of scientific nomenclature, Apatosaurus had priority, and the name, they argued, should be officially changed.

Gould argues that Brontosaurus should remain, even though the rules require a name change. It is hard enough to get people interested in science, and if Brontosaurus is the name people know the dinosaur by, then we need to keep it.

The story becomes even more complicated as funding was found for additional studies of the skeletons. Today, many people consider them two separate species. On and on it goes.

Regarding the video, I suspect the people working in that area will take pleasure in the unfortunate name given to the discovery made by the Chinese scientists. I will be keeping an eye on the situation.

Whether it is the copper nanotubes discussed by Professor Fry or the dinosaurs discussed by Gould, both topics can lead to an interesting and informative discussion. All you need is an interlocutor with 52 free seconds and a phone. In my post-Harvard experience, that person remains elusive.

POSTSCRIPT

I ran 5 miles this morning, as usual. I was listening to Sean Carroll’s Mindscape podcast. He is a physicist currently at Johns Hopkins University, and I highly recommend listening to his weekly offering.

Today I was listening to his monthly AMA (Ask Me Anything). He told a story about receiving links to a video from several different people. He decided to click it for one reason, he said he respected the people who sent the link so he was certain it was worth watching. Thank you, Sean. You are preaching to the choir.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Linnaeus Q. Dick (Flash Fiction)

 

 

“Feet off the furniture!”

The students rustled in their seats as they all turned toward their professor. He was a sight: cape, beret, ascot, and walking stick. The only thing that changed from lecture to lecture was the color scheme. Today, dark blue.

Linnaeus Q. Dick strode down the steps toward the lectern. He always looked stern and serious, but the students knew it was a façade. He gave everyone an A and didn’t care a bit about the fallout from the administration.

Aesthetics 445, a senior-level philosophy class taken by anyone and everyone. No tests, no quizzes, no papers. Just turn in a journal of random thoughts about topics discussed or alluded to in class, and you’re golden. A guaranteed grade of A for everyone; in fact, that was the only mark he had ever given in his long career.

Doctor Dick, for reasons he never understood, found himself teaching at a public school in the middle of the United States. The students were mediocre, and the teaching load was heavy. He had no time or energy to finish his life’s work, a three-volume history of the philosophy of aesthetics.

“I am Professor Dick, chairman of the philosophy department of this run-of-the-mill, seventh-rate university.” He paused as he spotted a student reading the university newspaper, clearly not paying attention to the important matter at hand.

“Get out. The student reading the newspaper. Get out now.” His voice was calm; there was no anger in his intonation, only resigned disappointment.

The young man casually looked up. The hundreds of other students remained silent as the young man, once realizing he was the person singled out, quickly got up and left.

Professor Dick waited until the student left the auditorium before continuing.

“Not that any of you hillbillies would know, there is a long-standing tradition in academia that a professor, at the end of their career, gives a final lecture detailing the most important things the scholar has learned and wants to pass on. This is that lecture for me.”

As it was the beginning of the semester, a few of the more intelligent students looked at each other with quizzical expressions. They were confused; none seemed concerned (they were too young and naïve to understand what was happening).

“I have failed. I have failed each of you. I have failed your families, your descendants, your friends, and anyone you care about. I have failed every person who looked to me as an authority figure competent to further their education. I have disgraced my ancestors. I have disgraced myself. The only thing I have to tell you, the only piece of wisdom I can relate is this: If you want to know the essence of a person, look at who they pick as a partner. That will tell you nearly all you need to know. That’s all.”

The next moment changed the lives of every person in the auditorium. No one should ever have to see what they did, no one.

 

The Geography of Attention

The internet, for good reason, creates the illusion of placelessness. We often speak about online spaces as though geography has somehow dissolved into pure abstraction (perhaps because it has). A post is published, indexed, shared, and consumed in a domain that appears detached from physical space (because it is). Yet audiences still necessarily cluster geographically. Attention still has borders and centers.

At the same time, even relatively small blogs (and unread blogs, like mine) can develop surprisingly international footprints. A post written in Ohio may quietly reach readers in Germany, Singapore, South Africa, Peru, or Hong Kong. The resulting distribution is happily uneven but not random.

Recently, I examined the geographic distribution of my own readership data. The results revealed a familiar but fascinating structure: a dominant national core followed by a remarkably long international tail. Nearly seventy percent of my readers came from the United States, but the remaining audience is dispersed across dozens of countries spanning six continents. Astonishing. I never would have believed I could have such reach.

Figure 1. Geographic distribution of readership by country.

Figure 1 presents the raw audience distribution. Unsurprisingly, the United States dominates the dataset with over 5,000 readers. The next tier includes Germany, China, the United Kingdom, Australia, and Canada. Beyond that lies a progressively descending series of countries contributing smaller but still meaningful readership totals.

At first glance, the international component appears minor. This impression, however, is partly a problem of scale. Extremely large values visually compress smaller values. Once one category becomes overwhelmingly dominant, the rest begin to resemble statistical background noise even when they contain important information.

This is a common problem in data analysis. Large systems frequently obscure their own internal structure. There are ways to deal with this.

To better examine the distribution, it is useful to transform the data logarithmically.

Figure 2. Geographic readership distribution displayed on a logarithmic scale.

The logarithmic transformation substantially changes the interpretation. Germany, China, the United Kingdom, Australia, and Canada now emerge as a distinct secondary layer rather than simply disappearing beneath the gravitational pull of the United States. The international audience becomes easier to conceptualize as a real structure rather than a residual category.

Interestingly, this type of distribution appears repeatedly throughout complex systems. City populations, word frequencies, citation networks, website traffic, and social media engagement patterns often exhibit similar heavy-tailed behavior. A small number of nodes dominate the system while a long sequence of progressively smaller contributors extends outward indefinitely.

The resulting geometry is neither symmetrical nor random. It reflects the cumulative effects of language, search algorithms, network diffusion, cultural proximity, and simple historical contingency.

English-language content naturally concentrates within the United States. Yet once ideas begin moving internationally, the pathways become less predictable. Germany appearing second in the distribution may reflect academic interest, search indexing patterns, algorithmic recommendation behavior, or merely the accidental accumulation of links over time. The same is true for Singapore, South Africa, or Peru. Online diffusion contains both structure and randomness simultaneously.

The cumulative distribution makes this even clearer.

Figure 3. Cumulative readership concentration by ranked country.

Figure 3 demonstrates how quickly the audience accumulates. The United States alone accounts for nearly seventy percent of total readership. After that initial jump, however, accumulation slows dramatically. The remaining percentages require dozens of smaller national audiences contributing incrementally to the overall total.

This is the hallmark of a long-tail distribution.

The phenomenon is philosophically relevant because it reveals the coexistence of centralization and dispersion within modern information systems. Attention is highly concentrated, yet ideas still scatter globally in surprisingly diffuse ways. A relatively small intellectual project can nonetheless establish faint statistical traces across an enormous geographic landscape.

Perhaps most important, the smallest numbers matter the most conceptually. One reader in Tanzania. One in Iceland. One in Yemen.

Individually insignificant from a statistical perspective, collectively they reveal something larger about the architecture of the modern internet. Ideas no longer move outward in neat geographic circles. They scatter unevenly, unpredictably, and sometimes almost at random.

The geography of attention is neither flat nor centralized. It is as fascinating as it is nonlinear.

52!

I woke up this morning and decided I was going to do something never before seen in the history of the universe. I started to solve the Riemann Hypothesis, but then thought better of it. Turns out, it is far easier to shuffle a deck of playing cards.

How many different possible combinations are there? More than a couple. Here is the answer in scientific notation:

Here is the number written out:

 80,658,175,170,943,878,571,660,636,856,403,766,975,289,505,440,883,277,824,000,000,000,000

Let’s change that number to seconds. If you were to shuffle a standard deck of cards every second, starting at the Big Bang and continuing until today, you would not make a dent in the number. You would need this many years to exhaust all possible combinations:

The age of the universe in years:

So…yeah. Each time you properly shuffle a deck of playing cards, you are creating a sequence that most certainly has never been seen before and will never be seen again. 

Notice that in this instance, uniqueness emerges from permutation. There is nothing special about the sequences, no narrative that can give them meaning. It is simply about the arrangement of playing cards. You might find that astonishing.

The Delightful Louise Stonham

I was in the middle of writing another math post when I came across a “tok” on my phone (OK, a YouTube short). Mississippi State University has a young track and cross country runner named Louise Stonham who keeps randomly showing up on my feed. Today, I realized that we are kindred spirits.

Ok, so well over four decades ago, I was a D1 athlete. I have a letter and a mug somewhere in my house to prove it. For the last several weeks, it has been apparent to me that Ms. Stonham is very proud of her status as a D1 athlete, as she should be. It is a big deal. Not everyone can claim such an honor.

I always smile when she shows up on my phone, dancing and bouncing around like a promising young person with her entire life in front of her. What a joy she is. Today I saw something a little different.

Her latest post shows her running on the track. I am guessing it is a 10k race. The caption reads “When the hardest part of running isn’t the running itself… It’s battling the voice in your head.”

Truer words have never been spoken. I never have trouble getting out to run, the problem always comes when I am out there and the voice, that substantial and inevitable voice, tells me to slow down or cut the workout short. It happens all the time to me now, just as it has for decades.

I usually run 5 miles a day. Today, I gave in to the voice and stopped after 4 miles. “Stop…slow down…you have been running too hard…you are old…you don’t want to get hurt…you should have taken a day off…” You get it. This happens to me almost every day.

I just want to thank Ms. Stonham for letting me know I am not alone in my battle with myself. This is the first time I have ever heard another runner talk about this issue, a problem that has plagued me throughout my life.

Well, young lady, I am rooting for you. As I sit here in mythical Iriquois County, Ohio, I only wish you fulfillment and happiness. Do your best to never lose your joy for running or your passion for life. You are an inspiration. And, good grief, whatever happens, do not stop posting!

 

Wayne’s Wife’s Uncle

Herb Powell – Uncle Herb sounds so formal. Do you think you could call me Unky Herb?
Bart Simpson – No problemo, Unky Herb.

 

Most of my academic training has been in archaeology. There are two distinct camps among archaeologists. There are “artifact people,” those who study the past because of a fascination with material culture, and others (a distinct minority) find their way into the discipline for methodological and theoretical reasons. I am most certainly not an artifact person; I have never felt a thrill from holding a projectile point a thousand years old. To me, artifacts are data. The patterns they create are vastly more interesting than the material itself.

Archaeologists study artifacts to bolster theories of cultural and human evolution. Every dig, if properly executed, adds to our collective knowledge. A Marshalltown trowel placed in the dirt uncovers evidence that either supports or refutes specific scientific theories addressing changes in human behavior over time. That is why I studied archaeology; I was interested in how we get to “big idea” theories from material dug out of the ground.

For me, archaeology has always been a fundamentally mathematical and statistical discipline. If something couldn’t be quantified, it was of little interest to me. Knowledge and progress come from numbers, at least in my corner of the world. I spent decades studying the scientific method, specifically how statistical methods can be used for theory building. Archaeology was always a severe test case for me. Recreating entire cultures from stuff pulled from the dirt always struck me as a hard and interesting problem. Sometimes I think I know less now than when I started.

In 1985, I arrived in Cambridge, Massachusetts. For the first and only time in my life, I felt at home. I haven’t been back in nearly 35 years, but I still think about that place every day and dream about it every night. While there, I found my people. Those times were, without question, the best days of my life. There is no close second. A vignette about a day in my life on campus might be appropriate.

I remember one day when I was talking with my advisor, Bob, in his office in The Peabody Museum. This office was across the hall with a door with several names, including “Danson.” I recognized the other names, but Danson was unfamiliar to me. It seems that Harvard University kept the names of anyone who had occupied that office on the doors. My advisor’s office had the name “Kidder” listed on the door, for Alfred V. Kidder, an important and influential archaeologist who died in 1963. Bob and I often wondered if Kidder would approve of the conversations we had in his old office. We thought that he would.

So, what about this Danson character? Turns out it was the father of actor Ted Danson, widely known for his role as Sam Malone on Cheers. Ned Danson received his PhD in anthropology from Harvard in 1952. Who knew?

I mention the Danson story because, on the day I noticed the name on the door, Bob and I were discussing Ethnographic Analogy, a research method central to archaeology. Archaeologists use analogy to compare an unknown culture with other documented groups. Cultures in similar environments or with similar artifact assemblages are assumed to have much in common when reconstructing their political, religious, and social systems.

I remember that conversation because as I was explaining my objections to the methodology, Bob told me that an archaeologist needn’t use analogy when reconstructing past societies. I gave him a quizzical look as he said, “You can use metaphor!” I think my sigh was heard across campus. His point (and attempt at humor) was well taken: analogies (or metaphors) are integral to the thought process, despite the inherent problems and limitations of the procedures.

Shortly after our talk about ethnographic analogy, we crossed the street to get lunch. There, we had a chance encounter with a guy named Wally. He sat down and told us an unbelievable story about a mimeograph machine. If you ever run into me, ask me about it. I usually save it for special occasions (same with my Superman impression), but you never know, you might get lucky. I always say that the story includes two Nobel Laureates, a Harvard Professor, a beautiful, mysterious woman in a lab coat, and me. I will leave it to your imagination to figure out which person does not belong. That said, the necessary background is in place, and we can move to the material evidence.

 

32 CDs

 

Famous for burying the lede (it is my nature), I can finally get to Wayne’s wife’s uncle. I went to high school with Wayne. I met his wife once, and I don’t know any details about her uncle. The only thing I know is that he recently passed away. Wayne told me that he had a big library that they sold for pennies on the dollar. I really wish I could have gotten my hands on that library (more on that later). Wayne told me that he also had a large CD collection that they were going to throw away. I told him I would be happy to take it. I was already thinking about reconstructing this mysterious man’s life from the CDs. Think of this as my own version of a modern-day pseudo-archaeological study. I will treat each CD as I would an artifact from an archaeological site.

Wayne brought over two large cases, apparently full of CDs. They were strapped shut, so I didn’t have instance access. What I did have was 32 CDs in the CD player that Wayne also dropped off.

Of course, my first inclination was to do as much statistical analysis as possible on the CDs I had ready access to. I was severely limited in what I could do, largely because the sample I had was not random. It seems reasonable to assume they were selected with a specific purpose in mind. This is what I found.

 

 

I have several observations made from these 32 data points. The first is that Unky Rick (I finally asked Wayne for his name) was either a fan of J.S. Bach or in a serious Bach phase when he passed away. I found 5 CDs in this sample dedicated to Bach’s music, including two performed on 8-string guitars. I must admit I did not know that 8-string guitars are a thing. Subsequently, I have found that they are popular in Scandinavian Heavy Metal Music, less popular in Jazz, and even rarer in Classical Music circles.

I am guessing that many of you do not realize that Bach is, by far, the most influential classical composer among modern rock musicians. Bach is the one they always talk about when it comes to their classical music influences. Was Unky Rick a rock musician? Doubtful. I do believe he had knowledge of and appreciated Bach’s well-known genius in what is known as contrapuntal composition.

As for me, I am a serious Wolfgang Mozart man. I believe that it is the greatest cosmic ripoff in the history of the universe that he was taken from us at such a young age. I have sat through numerous courses on Mozart, read all the books, and I listen to his music daily. Piano Concerto in D (K. 175) is playing in the background as I bang this post out right now.

Unfortunately, Unky Rick had only 1 (odds bodkins, just 1!) Mozart CD queued up on his player when I received it. I am in a forgiving mood, so I will let it slide and wait to see if there is more in the cases.

The next observation that gave me pause was discovering that Unky Rick had an affinity for modern classical composers. Many people, including me, who love classical music, do not bother with living composers. It simply is not done. Why would I listen to some random dude when I could bask in the genius of Mozart? For better or worse, the vast majority of people feel that way. Unky Rick was a clear exception.

I found one CD among the 32 that astonished me. This one data point instantly made me realize that had I met Unky Rick, we would have become instant friends. He and I, even though we never met and never will, were, are, and will remain kindred spirits. How is that possible from a single CD? I will make you wait for that answer because I just decided to open the cases. I am going to take an initial, random, non-scientific look at the contents.

 

1000 to 1100 CDs

 

OK… first of all, no Ludwig van Beethoven. I don’t see a single disc. Is that odd? Yes. I don’t listen to Beethoven because I do not think very highly of him. He ripped off Mozart, then stole from him some more, and then decided to “borrow” even more from my man. I really wonder why Unky Rick doesn’t have any. Did he feel the same way? I don’t think so. If he did, I would expect more Mozart in the collection than I found.

Perhaps even more curious is the following. No opera. Let me say that again, I could not find a single disc containing an opera in the entire collection. Like me, did he find the vocals distracting when he was studying or working? I must admit I am really surprised by this. Every classical music fan has to have some opera, right? Maybe? Is there a rule somewhere requiring it? I’ll look into it, but I am pretty sure that if you are sent the super secret opera decoder ring, you’ll need to provide proof of opera ownership. Did he have the ring? I do not know, but my guess is that his fingers were bare.

This next piece of information is very strange. I examined over 200 CDs, and I could not find a single one released after 1999. Why did he stop buying music for the last 25 or so years of his life? Did he start downloading new music? This is around the time Napster appeared in all its glory. That seems like the most logical explanation. I do not think that he lost interest in music and gave up. That doesn’t seem plausible at all.

Archaeologists have a specific term for this type of situation, terminus ante quem (TAQ). It is always good to throw a little Latin into a post, don’t you think? Since I found no CDs released after 1999, the collection has a TAQ of 1999. Nothing in that assemblage is later than that date. In archaeological terms, it is like a sealed layer that must predate a known event.

As the 32 discs imply, many present-day composers are represented in the cases, far more than the usual suspects. I did find a lot more Mozart and Bach, but the CDs are dominated by those who are alive today or are recently deceased.

So, was Unky Rick a professional musicologist or a music professor? I don’t think so. The CDs were not organized in any apparent fashion. They seemed haphazardly placed on the shelves. There were no categories indicated, nor were the performers or composers alphabetized in any form. A CD of didgeridoo music was next to a Gregorian Chants recording, which was beside a Dennison University Choir performance.

After this cursory glance, it is time to get to some real work.

 

Sampling

 

It is difficult for me to relate how much time I have spent studying sampling. I sat through course after course, book after book, and read article after article. I am still studying these procedures and am excited to learn more about Bayesian sampling techniques, a topic I know little about. Of course, I am familiar with Bayesian inference, but I have never had to take a sample within that paradigm.

One of the reasons I started this blog was to educate potential scientists. I want to give just enough information to pique the interest of someone who might one day want to take a much deeper dive into the topics I am interested in.

I bring this up because I decided to take an appropriate, scientifically valid sample of Unky Rick’s CD collection. I took an explicitly frequentist approach to this sample. Rest assured, I did not slop this together; I gave it careful thought. Hopefully, someone reading this post will be interested enough to take a more in-depth look at why I chose this exact equation.

Here is the sampling equation I utilized:

 

Where
N = population size (≈1050 CDs)
z = z-score for confidence level (1.96 for 95%)
p = estimated proportion (0.5 is used when unknown)
e = margin of error

 

The output from the equation means I can get a result at the 95% confidence interval with a +/- 6% error if I sample 200 CDs. Believe it or not, if he had an infinite number of CDs, all I would need is a sample of 384 to achieve a +/- 6% error range at this confidence interval. I have always found that fascinating. It is an unexpected outcome (maybe a quirk?) of statistical analysis. Since I received a little over 1000 CDs, I decided to pull out a random sample of 200 CDs. Here are the results.

 

 

OK, the man had strong musical tastes. He knew what he liked, that much is certain. I immediately wanted to know how concentrated his CD collection is. The CD collection is focused on a few musical categories, with the majority of recordings falling into the classical and choral traditions. Earlier, I mentioned that I want to quantify all that is quantifiable. There is a metric that addresses the issue: the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI). I have never needed to use it, and I am glad it has come up now.

The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) is a measure of concentration that describes how evenly or unevenly observations are distributed across categories. It is calculated by summing the squares of the proportions of each category:

 

 

where pi is the proportion of observations in category i and k is the number of categories.

Because the proportions are squared, categories with larger shares contribute more heavily to the index. The HHI ranges from 0 to 1, with lower values indicating a more diverse distribution and higher values indicating greater concentration in a few categories.

Based on this sample and an HHI ≈ of 0.327, the CD collection is moderately to highly concentrated. It is reasonable to say “So what?” This type of index becomes more important when multiple cases are studied and compared. So, does anyone else have an interesting uncle?

I have to admit, this man is becoming increasingly fascinating as I delve deeper into what he left behind. He was unusual in the best kind of way.

 

Arvo Pärt and the Sound of Stillness

 

I still get a big kick out of learning new things. It sustains and elevates me. I remember one day, walking down a hallway on campus in Cambridge, I came across a remarkable door. What initially caught my eye was a large image of a very old, bearded man with a cane, struggling to carry several books under his arm. The caption read “Learning Until the Day I Die.” As I was looking over the image, the professor emerged from his office. I apologized for blocking his exit. He laughed and told me, “You know, that is why I post all the things on my door. I hope that someone might one day become inspired by something I taped up.” Well, I viewed that image 40 years or so ago, and I never forgot it. Well done, professor.

I am happy to report that I have learned a great deal while writing this post. I had to research Gregorian Chants, a staple of Unky Rick’s chosen material, and Arvo Pärt, the most performed living classical composer in the world. It will surprise no one that Gregorian Chant deeply influences Pärt’s canon.

I noticed CD after CD with Pärt’s name on the cover. Of course, I became curious about this man and set to my task. I have listened to hours of his music, and I am now thoroughly convinced that Unky Rick had a sophisticated musical knowledge far beyond mine. If this were an official “Archeological Dig,” I would call in experts to consult.

I can, though, relate what my research has uncovered. At a surface level, both traditions, Gregorian Chant and the Pärt School, share an obvious feature: slowness. Gregorian chant unfolds without rhythm in the modern sense. It moves like breath, displaying an ethereal quality. Pärt’s music, especially in his tintinnabuli style (a method he invented), is similarly restrained. The sparse notes appear with deliberate spacing, often surrounded by large fields of silence. For the casual listener, this can feel uneventful. For the informed and devoted listener, however, the silence is not emptiness; it is structure.

This distinction matters, especially to those who take this music seriously.

People who gravitate toward these musical forms often demonstrate a high tolerance for stillness. They are comfortable with and enthusiastically welcome environments that others might label ‘quiet’ or ‘uneventful’. Perhaps more importantly, they do not experience silence as an uncomfortable or awkward gap. Instead, silence becomes an integral element of the experience itself. In a sense, the listener participates in the music by providing patience.

From an analogical perspective, this suggests a reflective disposition. My research suggests that individuals attracted to Gregorian Chant and Pärt are often curious about deeper questions. Philosophy, theology, history, and even mathematics often appear somewhere in their intellectual orbit. The music itself invites this orientation. A medieval chant carries nearly a millennium of cultural continuity. A Pärt composition often hides a precise structural logic beneath its simple surface. Both traditions reward attention to pattern. Of course, a look at Unky Rick’s elusive library would answer those questions.

Interestingly, pattern recognition, the heart of mathematical thinking, is central here. Gregorian chant follows modal systems rather than modern harmonic progressions. The listener gradually learns the contours of these modes, much as one recognizes the grammar of a language. Pärt’s work is even more explicit in its architecture. The tintinnabuli technique pairs melodic lines with triadic tones in carefully constrained relationships. The resulting sound is spare, yet mathematically coherent.

I normally write the beginning of a post last. After learning more about the music in the cases, I revised the initial paragraphs because it is clear to me that, if Unky Rick had been an archaeologist, he would not have been an artifact guy. He experienced his music in a very sophisticated way, through the patterns present and implied. I think this also explains his interest in Jazz. Serious officianiados of that genre consider the notes not played as well as those performed.

For analytically inclined minds, this pattern recognition is the point.

Another shared characteristic of these listeners is a preference for depth over novelty. In contemporary culture, novelty functions as currency. Streaming platforms encourage constant movement between songs, artists, and genres. Chant and Pärt operate under a completely different logic. The value of the music often increases with repetition. A piece heard dozens, or hundreds, of times reveals details that initially pass unnoticed.

Perhaps most importantly, this listening pattern cultivates a particular emotional tone. The experience is not dramatic in the cinematic sense. Instead, it produces something closer to equilibrium. The music does not overwhelm the listener. This may be why there was no opera in the collection. He did not wish to be overwhelmed by the music; he wanted a more subtle, perhaps meditative, experience.

This is where the personality profile, derived through the analogy process we previously discussed, becomes especially interesting. The typical admirer of chant or Pärt often feels deeply, but expresses it with restraint. There is an appreciation for sincerity without theatricality. Beauty emerges through subtlety rather than intensity.

Importantly, this aesthetic preference frequently extends beyond music. Minimalist architecture, clean typography, uncluttered workspaces, and carefully organized data structures often appeal to the same individuals. The underlying principle remains consistent: remove the unnecessary elements, thereby allowing the structure to speak.

There is also a historical dimension. Gregorian chant connects the listener to an unbroken musical tradition reaching back through monasteries, manuscripts, and medieval cathedrals. Even for a secular listener, the sense of temporal continuity is striking. One hears not only a melody, but a fragment of cultural memory.

Pärt’s music operates similarly, though in a modern context. His work feels ancient, even though it was composed recently. The sound suggests continuity with something older than modernity itself.

Perhaps most importantly, this musical preference reveals an unusual relationship with time. Chant and Pärt slow perception. They create a space where minutes stretch, and attention deepens. In a culture built on acceleration, this becomes a quiet act of resistance.

The listener who loves this music is therefore not simply nostalgic or eccentric. He is practicing a different mode of attention.

At the core, that may be the real attraction. Silence, when properly structured, becomes a kind of equilibrium. And equilibrium, as it turns out, has its own music.

Oddly enough, and this is another extraordinary bit of synchronicity, I do have knowledge of specific aspects of the medieval world. I took around a half-dozen seminars on the history of medieval science back in the 1980s. I was tracing the shift from the demon-haunted world of that day to the more enlightened one of the Scientific Revolution. During all that time, the importance of music never came up. I can’t remember it ever being mentioned, and I never considered the musical tastes of the day to be relevant to anything I was studying.

Now I can conclude this section of the post. How? How else but with a discussion of French High Brow Cinema.

 

Zbigniew Preisner

 

I have a young friend (is a rapid approach toward 30 considered young?) named Sage who recently completed a master’s degree in English. I tagged along for the entire program. I read the assignments, watched the things they watched, and looked over her papers before she turned them in. Truth told, she didn’t need me to look over anything. She is a very smart and extraordinarily capable lady.

One of the last classes she took addressed the French Philosopher Jacques Derrida and his thoughts on what is known as Narrative Framing. Yeah, yeah… I know, not your run-of-the-mill topic. The professor had everyone watch three movies by the brilliant Polish director Krzysztof Kieślowski, a true person of genius. Known as Three Colours (Blue, White, and Red), the films are masterpieces of European (particularly French) Cinema. I believe I fall in love with Irene Jacob, the brilliant actress, again and again every time I rewatch Red, my favorite of the trilogy.

Sage’s professor repeatedly mentioned that the music throughout the trilogy was sublime and deserving of serious study. Her professor was correct. You have probably figured out that Preisner wrote the music for all three movies and that Unky Rick had a Preisner CD among the initial 32 that I found.

When I told Sage what I had discovered, she thought the same thing I did: “How cool!”  The CD, Requiem For My Friend, is a tribute that Preisner wrote for Kieślowski upon his death in 1996. Unky Rick surely knew of the trilogy and appreciated the genius of these two men. That one CD, more than the entirety of the whole collection, convinced me that Unky Rick and I would have enjoyed talking about his love of music.

I would have been happy to share a meal with him as we discussed what he found special about Preisner’s music. I am convinced he would have had some illuminating insights, and it is unfortunate I will never hear them.

 

Conclusion

 

As I write this post, I find myself constantly returning to the tragic events of July 12, 1562. A Franciscan friar (whom I refuse to name), a dimwitted individual from Spain, burned nearly all of the written records of Mayan civilization. They were, in his estimation, works of the devil produced by ignorant heathens. For the sake of all that is good and holy, God himself told the friar that the materials needed to be destroyed. To this day, only four Maya codices survive.

While the destruction of the written records of the Mayan civilization is a tragedy, the disappearance of Unky Rick’s library is nothing more than a footnote in history. Yet, from an archaeological perspective, the situation is the same. The materials are gone, and nothing can be done about it. There was a lot to be learned, but circumstances got in the way.

Why am I fixated on Unky Rick’s library? I have written about my own substantial library. Decades ago, I had hoped it could be kept together and passed down to someone who would appreciate it. I now know that it is a pipe dream. No one will care, and the removal of the books from my home after I am gone will be more of a burden than an opportunity for discovery (good luck, Sage). That doesn’t make me sad; it only makes me shrug my shoulders.

As for Unky Rick’s library, did he have any books about the movie trilogy? Was his copy of Plato’s Republic worn out? I bet he had texts on Aristotle and knew that Socrates didn’t want anyone to write anything down. Did he have any materials about his favorite violinist (Esther Abrami, anyone?) or did he not bother with such trivialities? Would his library tell more about him than the CDs? That is a very good question, and I don’t have a good answer. I do know that my library would expose me.

I have some final, purely speculative, thoughts on Wayne’s wife’s uncle. I don’t think he ever married; there was nothing overtly kid-friendly in the cases. I believe he was highly educated and deeply religious. He certainly could have been a member of the clergy. He was a man who might have felt he was born out of time, believing that the 1300s or 1400s were better times to live in. He watched The Name of the Rose more than once (as I have) and had a highly cultivated mystical (make that spiritual) side (as I do not have).

I believe he lived near Columbus, Ohio, and probably attended Denison University or had a close relationship with it. I gathered this information from the CDs; many were purchased in Columbus, and several feature performances by Dennison orchestras and choirs.

He was a thoughtful, intelligent man in a progressively dense and reactionary world. I would have been delighted to have some tacos and beer with him as we discussed how Preisner’s music informed and framed Kieślowski’s narrative vision. I am convinced he would have had some interesting insights. Finally, I hope he had people in his life who appreciated him, and I really wish I had known him.

 

 

The Guitar Man (Flash Fiction)

It was one of those nights when Daniel felt the weight of his existence pressing down on him. Everyone in his circle had conspired to make him feel small and insignificant, and he realized they had won. His guitar, a sunburst Telecaster, sat propped against the corner of his cluttered apartment, its wooden body glowing dimly in the light of a single table lamp. The coffee table was littered with takeout boxes, sheet music, and rejection letters from record labels. He hadn’t played a gig in months, and even when he did, no one cared.

“Just another face in a sea of struggling musicians,” he muttered, kicking an empty can of beer across the room. He knew that when he died, there would be little evidence that he ever lived. He flopped onto his couch, staring at the ceiling.

Daniel had dreamt of being a musician ever since he could remember, but the universe had other plans. The gigs that came through were sparse and unpaid, his songwriting was stagnant and derivative, and his social media accounts were filled with dismal and indifferent silence. He scrolled through his phone, looking at pictures of famous musicians, the people he envied and tried to emulate. Their lives seemed effortlessly glamorous—beautiful women, sleek cars, sold-out shows. How often do those people have to worry about coming up with the rent? What would it be like to be someone like that?

The thought lingered as he set his phone down and reached for his guitar.

The moment his fingers brushed the strings, something strange happened. He felt a jolt of static shoot up his arm. He flinched, shaking his hand, but the sensation faded almost as quickly as it had come. Weird. He shrugged it off and tuned the guitar, plucking each string with expert precision.

The first chord he played was a G major, the quintessential cowboy chord, a familiar sound that usually brought him some comfort. But tonight, it felt… different. The notes hung in the air longer than usual, vibrating through his skull as if the sound had turned physical. It was then that Daniel noticed the room had begun to shift. His fingers kept moving, strumming a melody he didn’t recognize, his body acting independently.

The walls blurred, and his vision seemed to stretch and twist, pulling him through some invisible tunnel. His fingers kept strumming, and he kept playing the unknown song. And then, everything stopped.

Daniel blinked, finding himself standing in the middle of a crowded club. A stage with bright lights. The electric hum of an audience waiting in anticipation. He looked down at his hands. They were gripping a guitar—a Stratocaster that wasn’t his. The strings hummed beneath his fingers, a warm buzz of anticipation. But it wasn’t just the guitar that was different.

He was different.

Daniel stumbled back, his mind scrambling to understand what had just happened. A glance at the mirror behind the bar stopped him cold. He wasn’t looking at his own reflection. Staring back at him was someone else—a man with sharp cheekbones, styled dark hair, and a leather jacket that looked like it cost more than his monthly rent. His hands, calloused and weathered from years of playing, were smooth and adorned with rings.

“What the hell?” he whispered, his voice sounding foreign in his own ears.

A voice crackled over the speakers before he could fully process what was happening. “Ladies and gentlemen, give it up for John Wisher!”

The crowd erupted into cheers, and Daniel—or John, apparently—felt his legs carry him to the microphone. His body moved with an effortless swagger as if it knew exactly what to do. Muscle memory. Without thinking, he strummed the guitar, hung down much lower than he was used to, and began to play. The song flowed out of him effortlessly, like he had played it a thousand times before. His fingers danced along the fretboard, and John’s voice boomed through the speakers, captivating the crowd.

For a moment, he was lost in it. The music, the applause, the energy of the room. He felt alive in a way he hadn’t in years. But as the song ended and the cheers died, reality hit him like a punch. This wasn’t his life. This wasn’t his body. He was… someone else.

Panicking, Daniel rushed off the stage, ducking into the club’s back alley. His heart pounded in his chest, his mind racing. How was this possible? Was he dreaming? Was he dead?

He clutched the guitar tightly, his fingers trembling as he plucked the strings again, desperate to find a way back. The same strange melody came to his hands, unwelcome and unintentional, and the world around him began to warp again.

With a rush of sound and light, Daniel was back in his apartment, staring at his reflection. His heart hammered, but the relief was overwhelming. He was himself again.

For days, he avoided his Telecaster, afraid to touch it. The experience felt too real to be a hallucination, but he couldn’t make sense of it. Was it magic? Some kind of curse? He didn’t know. All he knew was that playing those notes had transported him into another person’s life.

But curiosity gnawed at him, whispering to him in the quiet moments. He couldn’t stop thinking about the rush of being John Wisher—the thrill of the crowd, the feeling of success. That was what he had always wanted, wasn’t it? To be someone? To live a life that mattered?

Finally, Daniel gave in.

Sitting on the edge of his bed, he picked up his sunburst Telecaster again, his fingers trembling as he played the same mysterious melody. Once more, the room warped and spun, and when the world settled, he was somewhere new.

This time, he was in a recording studio. His reflection in the glass showed a different man—a polished, clean-cut singer in his mid-30s, headphones around his neck, a crowd of producers nodding in approval from the other side.

The life he’d stepped into was equally glamorous. The day was a whirlwind of recording sessions, photo shoots, and catered dinners at expensive restaurants. For a while, it was everything Daniel had dreamed of. He felt important. Admired. Successful.

But as the days went by, something began to gnaw at him. Each time he returned to his own life, his apartment felt more foreign, more distant. The simple act of waking up as Daniel in his shabby apartment became painful. It was as if he had tasted something sweet, only to have it ripped away again.

He began to spend more and more time in other people’s lives. A rockstar in one life, a wealthy and prominent composer in another. With each guitar strum, he was someone new—someone better. But the more he switched, the harder it became to remember who he really was. He would wake up in a stranger’s body and struggle to recall his own face. His own name.

Soon, the lines began to blur. He would return to his apartment after a week spent as some famous DJ, only to feel like he was stepping into a stranger’s home. He no longer felt like Daniel. He no longer wanted to be Daniel.

One night, after an especially wild show as the frontman of an explosive punk group, Daniel—or the person who had once been Daniel—sat in a luxurious hotel room, staring at the Strat. His fingers trembled as he picked it up again, the strings humming softly. He couldn’t remember the last time he had been himself, and he didn’t want to go back.

His life memories were fading like distant dreams—shadows of another existence. He could barely recall his face in the mirror or the sound of his voice.

As he played the familiar melody, the room began to spin, and he smiled. He no longer cared where the guitar would take him as long as he never had to return to the emptiness of his old life.

The last chord faded, and Daniel disappeared, swallowed by the endless stream of lives he would never fully belong to, lost in a symphony of borrowed faces and forgotten names.

In a state of existential despair, Daniel hoped to “become music” and live an infinite supernatural existence. All I know, all that anyone knows, is that if you visit a run-down building in the southern part of Iroquois County, Ohio, you will find a sunburst Telecaster in the corner of a dusty, abandoned apartment, waiting for its next player.