I got up early today and decided to take a look at what has been happening in the American League with all the first basemen. I was inspired after I heard that Kyle Manzardo was having a very unlucky season at the plate. It happens, and there are very good metrics out there to measure things like luck.

I want to take a glance at what is going on about 25 games into the 2026 season. The first figure shows which players have the most similar production. Notice that Manzardo’s offensive output is most closely related to that of his old teammate, Josh Naylor. Both are off to very slow starts.

The players on the right-hand side of the figure should come as no surprise. What might give you pause is the next figure. Instead of clustering players based on similar offensive numbers, I decided to analyze them only by the categories that help their teams win. In other words, I eliminated things like strikeouts and double plays that the player might have grounded into.

Our man Manzardo is all alone at the bottom of the list. I believe he is too good a player to remain there. The same is true for Naylor, and all the players with low rankings will probably increase their production as the weather warms.

If you study the chart, you will see that Ben Rice has been, by a wide margin, the most productive offensive first baseman in the American League so far this year. I was a bit surprised by this. I will keep an eye on things and report back throughout the season. Depending on the will of the Muses in control of The Boys of Summer, I might expand my horizons to every position in both leagues.